**Summary: Inside the 2024 Cerebral Valley Conference—A Glimpse into the Minds of AI’s Movers and Shakers**
The Cerebral Valley conference, now in its third year, has quickly established itself as a premier gathering for top minds in artificial intelligence (AI) and tech. Organized by Eric Newcomer and held in San Francisco, the event is known for its carefully curated speakers and attendees, fostering discussions that are deeper and more insightful than the average tech conference. This year’s event continued that tradition, bringing together founders, investors, engineers, product leaders, and journalists to examine the state and future of the AI industry.
**Key Insights from the Conference Survey**
One of the highlights of the conference was the unveiling of results from an anonymous survey completed by over 300 attendees. The survey provided a candid snapshot of what the AI industry’s insiders are thinking about the future. Here are some of the most notable results and what they reveal about current sentiment in the AI world:
1. **OpenAI’s Projected Revenue**: When asked to predict OpenAI’s annualized revenue by the end of 2026, respondents gave a median estimate of $30 billion. This reflects strong confidence in OpenAI’s ability to monetize its technology and maintain a dominant role in the AI landscape.
2. **Nvidia’s Future Valuation**: The median prediction for Nvidia’s market capitalization by the end of 2026 was a staggering $6 trillion. Nvidia, as the leading provider of AI hardware (especially GPUs), is seen as a foundational player in the ongoing AI boom.
3. **Arrival of AGI**: The group was asked when an independent expert committee—per the Microsoft-OpenAI agreement—would declare that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been achieved. The most common answer was 2030. However, this prediction didn’t generate nearly as much buzz as one might expect, perhaps indicating a shift in focus within the industry.
4. **Most Coveted Venture Capital Portfolios**: When it came to envy over VC firm AI portfolios, Andreessen Horowitz, Khosla Ventures, and Sequoia Capital were the clear leaders. These firms have made early and significant bets on some of the most promising AI companies.
5. **Top Private Tech Companies to Invest In**: If attendees could invest in any private tech company, their top picks were Anthropic, OpenAI, Cursor, Anduril, SpaceX, and OpenEvidence. Notably, these companies span a range of AI applications, from foundational models (Anthropic, OpenAI) to defense (Anduril) and aerospace (SpaceX).
6. **Predicted AI Model Leaders**: Looking to the future of AI development platforms, attendees believe that OpenAI will continue to lead, followed by Anthropic, Gemini (Google’s AI), Grok (possibly from xAI), and Qwen (Alibaba’s AI lab).
7. **Most “Shortable”